The Occupancy Forecast predicts which currently occupied properties are likely to see that kind of change in the next 90 days, rated High, Medium, or Low.
Across all homes, about 1 in 100 show a coming occupancy change. Among the High-rated homes, it’s closer to 1 in 8 — so the rating points you at a much smaller group, not the whole field.
Right now the forecast covers currently-occupied homes and predicts whether the people living there are likely to be different — or gone — within the next 90 days. It doesn’t yet tell you why the change is coming, although the Property Signals give you insights and clues as to whether it is a sale, a downsizing, a relocation, an estate transfer, a rental turnover, or something else. Ratings for currently vacant homes are on the roadmap.
A High rating means a property is showing more of the signals associated with upcoming transitions than a typical home, based on our model that analyzes troves of prior changes to predict future transitions. A Low rating means fewer. It’s a prediction of likelihood, so you know where to look first.
The rating draws on hundreds of features about the property and its neighborhood, but you don’t need to see all of them. The ones that matter most for interpretation are surfaced as Property Signals on the property page. Together, they help you infer what kind of transition may be coming:
Ownership tenure and owner age — a long-held home of a certain type with lower equity and an older owner points toward a possible estate sale or downsizing. A shorter-held home with a younger owner points toward a move-up or relocation.
Occupancy type — an owner-occupied transition is a different event from an investor-owned rental transitioning. Corporate ownership often signals portfolio activity or tenant turnover.
Equity and mortgage position — a highly-leveraged property signals different constraints than a paid-off one. High equity gives an owner more optionality to sell.
Home age and size — combined with neighborhood dynamics, these help you gauge whether a property is likely to move up-market, be a candidate for a rental conversion, or fit an investor’s buy-box.
Neighborhood patterns — recent sales, resident turnover, and vacancy rates nearby tell you whether the market is pulling the transition or the property is moving on its own.
No single signal decides the rating. The rating tells you which properties are likely to transition; the signals tell you how to think about the transition.
Whether you are a real estate investor, real estate broker, insurance professional, municipality administrator or individual interested in properties, the forecast helps you decide which properties are worth a closer look. It rates homes by relative likelihood, so you can focus your time where a change may be coming:
Decide where to start. A High rating means a property is showing more of the signals tied to an upcoming change, so it’s a natural place to focus first.
Find homes that may be in transition. The forecast surfaces properties that may be heading toward a change in ownership or occupancy, a useful starting point when you’re trying to find opportunities early.
Stay on top of it. Watch a property to keep its full details unlocked and stay on the property as its data is refreshed.
We’re expanding the forecast in three directions:
Vacant home coverage — the inverse event: ratings for currently vacant properties predicting whether they’re likely to become occupied.
More property types — extending coverage beyond the property types the forecast rates today.
The biggest factors behind a rating — calling out which signals drove an individual property’s forecast, rather than leaving you to read the full set.